Math 300 , Spring 2008, Day 40, M, May 5Hit reload...

Mini-exam due today.

Final exam:  Takehome, comprehensive, available Friday (maybe Wed.), due on or before Friday May 16 at 10pm.  I'll be on campus  Tuesday 1-10 pm., Wed 9-1.    Please email me with your expected departure time/ time to hand in this exam: I cannot oblige you to turn the exam in earlier than Friday night, but if they're all in earlier, I will want to pick them up earlier.

HW  Read 6.1, with as much of the computational detail as you can stand; at least the "intuitive" examples.
A. Write up, coherently, the derivations of W = X+Y for f(x,y) = 1 on the unit square 0<x, y <1. (outlined below)

B. From the handout, carefully graph the final f(w) = w2, 0<w<1; f(w) = w(2-w), 1<w<2.
C. Hand in: Find f(w) for W = X+Y for f(x,y) = 2e-x-y  , 0<x<y.  Use the f(w) formula;  Integrate with respect to x.  The only tricky thing is figuring out what the upper limit on the dx  interval is:  it is where the boundary line y=x intersects the line w=x+y.  For a fixed w, (say w=3) eliminate y, finding the upper limit of the x-interval as a number.  Repeat for a fixed wo.  You should get a recognizable distribution for f(w).   Optional--do it the hard way by integrating to find F(w) first.
p. 207, Read all problems, guess answers, check with back of book (good review of many distributions.)

With 90% probability, this is the last homework assignment.

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

Continuing with Two random variables X, Y "jointly distributed".

W = X + Y
 We know how to find the mean and the variance of W = X+Y.
--Last semester you were told that the sum of two Normal random variables is normal.
 --It seems reasonable that the sum of two independent Binomial random variables X B(n,p) and Y B(m,p), with the same p,  should be X+Y Binomial B(n+m, p), since the first models flipping a coin n times and the second models flipping the coin m times.  Doing them in sequence should be the same as flipping the coin m+n time.
--Likewise it seems reasonable that the sum of two independent Poisson random variables X+Y should be Poisson.  Suppose that X counts the number of arrivals over a time length lambda x and that Y counts the number of arrivals over a time length lambday  (then for each the expected number per unit interval is just 1).  The sum X+Y will count the number of arrivals over a time length (lambdax + lambday) .  (Ash gives a different, also good, rationale, p. 202)
--Exponential-->Gamma: Exponential is waiting time to first Poisson "hit"; Gamma is waiting time to n'th. We used that Gamma Y = sum of n independent exponential X's to rationalize the mean and s.d. of Gamma.

 Question:  How would you find the distribution of W = X+Y, in general?
Try it on discrete:  example from joint discrete handouts MultDisc p. 4, ConditDiscrete p.1.
             f(x,y) = (x+y)/21, x = 1,2,3, y= 1,2.  (recall sum of 2 dice)
w:       2 ,         3 ,                 4 ,              5
 f:   (1+1), (1+2)+(2+1), (2+2)+(3+1), (3+2), all over 21

Answer:  For f(w) for a fixed w, Add on lines x+y = w, --or-- over x, with y = w-x. i.e.
  For each wo, Sum f(x, wo-x) over all the x's for which f(x,wo-x) is positive. 
  (Ch. 6.1 does more of the discrete.)
  Continuous:  Use  method of CDF, transforming random variables, find that we can get f(w) by
      integrating on lines x+y = w, or y  = w-x.   Details on   Handout X + Y  (Ash gives a dx argument)
     Find  FW(wo) = P(W < wo) = P(X+Y < wo), area below and to left of x + y = wo line.
                 To get f(w), take derivative of F. After some hassle/trickery,

           fW(wo) = -ooSoo f(x, wo-x) dx. (limits of integration depend on what x's have positive density for  that wo)

Notice we're not exactly finding the Area in the x + y = wo slice; for the area we'd be integrating the height f(x,y)  by a base interval of width dw.  We're integrating dx instead.  It works....

If X and Y are independent with densities f(x) and g(y), the resulting integral is called the Convolution of the two marginals: Important enough for its own notation, f*g = -ooSoo f(x)g(wo-x) dx.  These occur all over mathematics, especially when dealing with linear models.

DPGraph shows (Normal and X+Y folder) slices of the areas that get integrated in this process, for  our familiar examples f(x,y) = x+y on unit square,  f(x,y) = 2e-x-y  on the triangular region.

Try this one by geometry, then integration: Uniform distribution on square:  f(x, y) = 1, 0< x, y < 1.  
To get the DPGraph for f(x,y) = 1 on the unit square from the one for f(x,y)= x+y, use this function as the last line of the Edit file:
         graph3d((z <1, z <1& c>x+y))

Note need a different form for 0< w < 1 and 1< w< 2:

0< w < 1: Geometry: FW(wo) = P(W < wo) = P(X+Y < wo) = volume above triangle with base wo2
             = (wo2 )/2.     fW(wo) = derivative of F = wo.

   Integration:  FW(wo) = (integrate x from 0 to wo }{integrate y from 0 to (wo-x)} 1 dy dx
         = (integrate x from 0 to wo }[wo -x] dx = [wox - (x2 )/2 ] {endpoints  0 to wo} =  (wo2 )/2. Yes! 
   fW(wo) = -ooSoo f(x, wo-x) dx = (integrate x from 0 to wo }1 dx = [x] {endpoints  0 to wo} =  wo.  Yes!

1< w< 2: Geometry: FW(wo) = P(W < wo) = P(X+Y < wo) = 1 - volume above top triangle, with base (2-wo)2
             = 1 - (2-wo)2 /2 = -1 + 2wo -(wo2 )/2.     fW(wo) = derivative of F = 2-wo.
Integration:  FW(wo) =  (use vertical slices first)
      (Rectangle with height y = 1 and base x = 0 to (wo-1))  + (Slant-top quadrilateral with base x = (wo-x) to 1)
               Rectangle:   (integrate x from 0 to (wo-1) }{integrate y from 0 to 1} 1 dy dx
                          =  (integrate x from 0 to (wo-1) }1 dx =  [x] {endpoints 0 to  (wo-1) } =  (wo-1)  Yes.
                Slant-top:   (integrate x from (wo-1) to 1 }{integrate y from 0 to  (wo-x)} 1 dy dx
                        =  (integrate x from (wo-1) to 1 } (wo-x)dx
                        =  [wox - (x2 )/2 ] {endpoints (wo-1) to 1} =  (wo - ½) - [( [wo(wo-1) - ((wo-1)2 )/2 ]
                        = (if you're careful) (wo - (wo2 )/2)   So
     
FW(wo) =   (wo-1) + (wo - (wo2 )/2) =  -1 + 2wo -(wo2 )/2.   Yes. 
   fW(wo) = -ooSoo f(x, wo-x) dx = (integrate x from (wo-1) to 1 }1 dx = [x] {endpoints  (wo-1) to 1} =  2 -wo.  Yes!

Notice that X+Y here is the sum of two independent uniform R.V.'s; which we saw in Math 251 had this triangular distribution.  "Sum of two spinners"  Data


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