MATH 251, Probability and Statistics I, Fall 2005, Sept. 26, Day 14After class

Reading Monday Day 14: Reread:   Two-way Tables for Categorical Variables (used to be in Ch. 2): Sec. 9.1, pp. 582-591, 9.2 pp. 591-93 (examples 9.12, 13, 14 only), and 9.3 pp. 601-3 only.
Chapter 3: Sec. 3.1 (Intro) and 3.2 through Ex. 3.11 p. 207.  Ahead, finish 3.2,  3.3, 3.4
Hand in: 
Two-way  tables Today, SPSS.  pp. 612ff. 
SPSS Intro Handout, p. 6.  Re-create the results shown on the handout.  Also create and print  two-way tables with the row, column, and total percents.  Use both the raw data and the pre-tallied data and observe that the results are identical.

IPS give no raw data sets to practice on; all the data are pre-tallied. 
For 9.1, 9.2, 9.3 students, do all the parts as written, using SPSS (The file is mislabeled Eg_09_001). ADD your hand work from last time, checking the SPSS results against your hand calculations. 

9.26 Web ref's (SPSS) Do everything they ask for except for the "significance test."
9.27 pet owners (SPSS) Do everything they ask for except for the "significance test."

9.24 a, b mutations  (SPSS)Fill in the blank row,  then type the data into SPSS in the appropriate form, and do part b.
Postpone this problem:  9.15 applicants (Simpson's paradox) (SPSS) See how much you can get SPSS to do.  (Hint. For c, use school as your "layer" variable)
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(Review) Income depends on height?! Read the article and answer this.
If your browser doesn't get the link, it's at http://aurora.wells.edu/~srs/Math251-Fall05/tallpeoplewin.htm    a)What is "$789", and what kind of analysis did they do? 
  b)What does my footnote at the end tell you about the data that the article did not? 
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Postpone these 3 problems Sec. 3.1 p. 196ff.
3.3, cell phones
3.4 tv violence
3.7 beer/wine
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(Start this:) 3.8 Net search Put this on a separate page.  Hand in the log and any result you find.  Due Friday.

Read, discuss 

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3.1 cola
3.5animation

Optional 
 
 
 
HW Questions???
First midterm: two parts: in-class exam Monday, Day 17 (Oct. 3)(??No LaReina Thurs-Sun) or Wednesday??
 plus data analysis project, in pairs.  Will randomly assign you to a pair.  * Handout: *
Exam will cover chapters 1, 2, and the first part of 9.  ("Exploratory" data analysis).

Categorical data with SPSS: (p. 6, Intro handout)
Pre-tallied?  Data> Weight Cases>Count to Frequency box.
 Analyze>Descriptive Statistics>Crosstabs.  Cells button.  (3-way? Third to Layer box)
Graph>Interactive> Bar:   100% box for stacked percents,  one variable to horiz. axis, other to legend box, stacked or clustered .  Third to panel.
Start here Wed.
Simpson's paradox:  An association or comparison that holds for all or several subgroups can reverse direction  when the data are combined into a single group.
Example from text.  p. 588 example 9.10
   SPSS output
Parallel Continuous situation: Cars.sav , like econ graduates problem (Ch.2).  (X=weight, Y=time to accelerate to 60.  Heavier car should be slower? Oops. Panel with #of cylinders, or color with horsepower.)
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Chapters 1 and 2 have covered analyzing data that was given to us--what it said about itself.
    "Exploratory Data Analysis"
    Informally, use to develop guesses, suspicions, hypotheses about the world the data came from.
"Anecdotal evidence"--haphazard information, often noticed because striking.  Often unrepresentative of anything.

Ch. 3:  Producing Data:  Aim:  create data sets that will allow us to make inferences to a larger world than just the data we have.   "Statistical Inference" = "Confirmatory Analysis"
Design how to get data...
       Observational Study:  Observes individuals, measures variables, does not influence the responses. (3.3)
                    Take Sample from a population, examine it,
                           hope it's representative so we can infer population is like sample.
                            (Not very useful for cause-and-effect--see sec. 2.5)
                    (Census--whole population)
        Experiment: Imposes treatment  on individuals, to see how the treatment influences  the response. (3.2)
                            Best for cause-and-effect.
Confounding:  Two variables (explanatory or lurking) are confounded when you can't sort out their effects on a response variable.
--Used to be: coffee drinking and smoking--most people did both, or neither...
--2 years ago:: women who ate at least one serving/day of whole grain (cereal, bread) much less likely to have heart attack.
   (Who eats whole grains?  Were those variables taken into account? ?)


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