Math 151 , Spring 2008 Monday Day 22, March 24 Hit reload....After class.

HW:  Finish Chapter 8.  Optional: p. 200 (Other designs) .  Start Chapter 9, first to p. 224.  Check p. 228: 9.16, 17, 18, 20 (obs/expt, factors:: then 21 (choosing groups), then read p. 224 on, then Check 9.19, 22, 23, 25.
Hand in  Wednesday yes,all
p. 199 8.9 Apartment living, SRS. Use Table B.
p. 209, 8.36 Area code sample, SRS  Use Table B.
p. 211, 8.45 random digit dialing
p. 210, 8.41 random digit characteristics p.209-10, 8.38 b only Traffic lights
p. 208, 8.30 movie viewing

p. 205, 8.16, Ask more people
p. 212, 8.50, Polling Hispanics

Chapter 9 ------ ------ -----
p. 229 9.25, 9.26  obsn/expt
p. 215, 9.1, 9.2, 9.3 treatments, factors, response, etc.
p. 216, 9.4 unemployment (confounding)
- - - - - - - - - -
Hand in Monday: 
Hand in answers to these questions on the "Placebo Effect" articles (outside my door/on reserve): 
a) Give two examples of the placebo effect (from the article!)
b) What do researchers believe causes the placebo effect? 
c)  In the separate article: "Pill will make you feel better...," what country was surveyed? 
Read, to discuss 

p. 211, 8.47 guns

p. 204, 8.14, 8.15 biases.
p. 208, 8.31 world affairs
p. 211, 8.46 wording survey questions
p. 212, 8.49 Canada healthcare

------ ------ -----
p. 233, 9.43 quick randomizing 


Optional
   p. 209, 8.35 Use table B (more practice)

p. 209, 8.34 seat belt use
------ ------ -----
 
Think about this one...
p. 230, 9.29 red wine.  This is a complex experiment with different amounts of polyphenols in different kinds of liquids.
 Doesn't fall neatly into our Factors-value structures?  Think about it a bit...

Exams returned before break:   Comments & more   Solutions  Get yours after class if you weren't here.
 Friday, Activism Symposium "Anatomy of Change" No formal class; review and help with me, or alternative assignment.     http://aurora.wells.edu/~symposium/    
Assigned last time: 
p. 199 8.10 Minority Managers Use the Simple Random Sample Applet, and choose a sample of size 6. Give your answer by listing their names. (I believe that everyone will get different samples.) Five of the 28 managers have East Asian surnames:  Huang, Kim, Liao, Shen, Wang.  How many of these are in your sample?  If you did it, write how many were in your sample next to your name on the signin sheet.

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
Recap: Sampling  (see days 20, 21)
>>Population: Entire group  that we want information about.
>>Sample: The part of the population we actually examine.
      Hope:  Sample will be representative of the population.
>> Sampling design:  Describes exactly how sample is to be chosen from population.

(SAMPLING) BIAS:  The design of a study is biased if it systematically favors certain outcomes.  
Non-probability samples (sampling badly): Voluntary response sample , Convenience sample

Our main sampling design:
Simple Random Sample
(
SRS) of size n n individuals
chosen in such a way that every possible set of n individuals has an equal chance of being chosen.
HW Questions?  Day 21
 Using Random Number Table. See Day 20 for details. 
      (Simple Random Sample Applet, is easier.  Enter population size, sample size, hit Reset, then Sample.)
See Day 20 for rest of details on Ch. 8:
Some more sources of bias:  
**Undercoverage:     One possible source of undercoverage: Sampling frame excludes some.
** Nonresponse
**Response bias
**Wording of questions                         
 A probability sample (p.200) is from a design where impersonal chance is used to pick the individuals.  SRS is the most straightforward.  More sophisticated methods are often used, but they're optional this term. (More info)
+ + + + + + + +
Larger (RANDOM) samples give more accurate results than smaller random samples.
  (but Not because you have more of the population.)
 More discussion of terms used in sampling

Ch. 9 Designing Experiments
         Observational Study   vs. Experiment  day 20
                Different jargon; different traditions.

Do something to:
    "Experimental Units" = "Subjects" = individuals.
Treatment:  Specific experimental condition we impose on one or more subjects.
Factor: Explanatory Variable we manipulate.
      There will be Specific values of a factor that we set. (Sometimes called "levels")
Response variable(s)  Results that we measure.
    E.g. Corn planting (HW day 15(?), p. 110, 4.28)  1 factor = planting rate.  5 different values (levels). 16 individuals (plots of ground). Response:  yield per acre.

E.g. 2 headache medications, in combination?
A two-factor experiment, each with 3 values (levels). 9 possible treatments.
    Factor A: Aspirin: values: None, 500 mg, 1000 mg
    Factor B: Caffeine: values: None, 50 mg, 100 mg
Response variable: reported pain relief



Aspirin


None 500 mg 1000 mg

None Treatment 1 Treatment 2 Treatment 3
Caffeine 50 mg Treatment 4 Treatment 5 Treatment 6

100 mg Treatment 7 Treatment 8 Treatment 9

Start about here Wed.
 Lurking variables:  Control--how?  Nothing except experimental treatment should differentially affect response.
    Compare responses under several treatments, look at differences.
Placebo effect: a positive response to a "sham" medical treatment--if you believe it will work, it very likely will. (Tinkerbell?)
    A medical treatment must be shown to be better than a placebo (at least) to be approved by the FDA.
               placebo="I shall please" (Latin)
To control for the placebo effect, All treatments should "look alike".  Treatment 1 above should be a pill with no medicine--a "placebo".  (Some experiments even try to duplicate side effects of actual medication.)

"Control group" Group that gets the "baseline"--"null"-- "none" or "placebo" value of the factor.  Should be "just like" the group(s) that get the "treatment" ("real" values of the factor).  So Treatment 1 above will go to the "control group", the other 8 will go to "experimental" or "treatment groups."
Murky language here:  "Experimental vs. control" or "Treatment vs. control" is different usage from "Treatments", one of which is the "control"="none"/"placebo".
     *Sometimes the Control  is the current "best practice" treatment, rather than none.

Sometimes (especially in bio, physics, chem experiments)  there is no "control group" --no baseline--just a sequence of different values (like corn planting experiment.)   Moore says "uncontrolled" --which doesn't mean "out of control" :-)
  In these environments also, we make everything else "the same" to try to eliminate confounding/lurking variable effects.


Sievers home   Math151-Sp08/Days22.htm  2pm 3/24/08
This page belongs to Sally Sievers who is solely responsible for its content. Please see our statement of responsibility.