Math 151 , Fall 2005, Day 9 Friday. Feb. 17 Hit reload... 

  Please welcome Prof. Sandy Shilepsky.  Please give him your support.  I'll be back Monday.
First hourly exam Day 12 (Feb. 24), a week from Friday .  Sample exams out last time, solutions outside my door & on reserve. 
Exam will cover thru what is assigned Monday.

HW Day9 (Fri. Feb. 17)
: Reading:  D&V Ch6 pp. 82-98. (today 82-89) (Normal Prob. Plots p. 94-95 is  Optional, but don't miss What Can Go Wrong, p95 bottom).  AS Ch. 6 is very good, in order. (Today thru 6-3)
Technology:http://www.whfreeman.com/scc/ , Statistical Applets, Normal Density.  Uncheck the 2-tail box for most uses.  OR ActivStats Normal Density Tool : for best setup Use AS30-2 "Normal distribution based Confidence Intervals tool" CAUTION: Don't hit the Enter key! It closes the tool-box!
Hand in (All D&VCh6 unless otherwise noted)
68-95-99.7 rule:  Ch6 p. 99ff:  Sketch normals&mark, do questions.
11 guzzlers
14 Rivets (d is a judgment call--depends on circumstance to some extent...)
13 downhill (for d:  Data is in order already.  Stemplot or histo-by-hand (widths=1) is quicker than going to SPSS.)
18 %white  (for d, your answer can be rough. Noting where Q1 is may help in guesstimating.)
p. 99,  #9 Professors
+ + + + + + + + + + + + 
standardizing: Ch6 p. 99: 
Sketch each Normal model and label its axis with both the "real/raw" values and the "z" values.  Mark the observations on the pictures, do questions.
  5 temperatures
  6 placement exams
= = = = = = = = = = = = =
Table use:
Always sketch the model first, mark the area you are looking for!  Find the answers using Table Z, Appendix p. A-30. Check your answers with one of the Technology Normal tools (see above)
p.101 #20, 22  (Note:  22d finds what numbers from the 5-number summary?)

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&
Do what you can of the following, KEEP for next assignment

Raw data problems. Do unstarred parts with table Z.  "Backward" parts  are marked with *--do them with a technology tool (see above)
p.102,  25 Cholesterol  a, b, c,  d*, e* 
26 Tires  a, b, c,  d*, e* 
28 Body Temperatures: a, b, c*  Also:  I have a theory as to where the "wrong" number 98.6F came from. Early work on temperatures all took place in Europe. Convert 98.6F and 98.2F to Celsius (subtract 32, and divide by 1.8).  What's my theory?
Read, 
to discuss
Optional 
Use technology to check on & 
picture your Normal models: 
Moore website http://www.whfreeman.com/scc/
  Statistical Applets, Normal Curve.  Uncheck the 2-tail box for most uses.    OR
ActivStats Normal Density Tool for you :
 for best setup*
Use AS30-2 "Normal distribution based   Confidence Intervals tool"
CAUTION: Don't hit the Enter key! It closes the tool-box!

Normal Prob. Plots (D&Vp. 94-95). 
 Do AS6-4¶3, print out your graphs. 
(Problem: SPSS Data set has Hospital charges (money) as String/Nominal, because the missing values were imported  as characters. 
 Change the Type String to Numerical, & then you 
can change Measure to Scale.)

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More table practice: z's:
p.101 #19, 21

HW questions?   Day 8

Start here Friday:
Symmetric, unimodal, no outliers, (not "uniform")  is candidate for
"Normal" Model:("Gaussian", "Bell-shaped") AS6-1,2,3 are good. Normal Density Tool (Use AS30-2 "Normal distribution based Confidence Intervals tool for best setup*CAUTION: Don't hit the Enter key! It closes the tool-box! ), acts like  http://www.whfreeman.com/scc/  Statistical Applets, Normal Curve.  Uncheck the 2-tail box for most uses.    What percent are further than 3 s.d. from the mean?  What percent  are  higher than 2 s.d. from the mean?  Etc.

Standardizing
: A "raw value" x is standardized by telling how many standard deviations above the mean it is.
    Find z:  Subtract the mean from x.  Now you know how far "above" the mean x is, in "raw" units. (If it's below the mean, the number will be negative.)  Find how far this is in "standard deviations" by dividing by the standard deviation.
That's the z-score.

Standardizing:   A way of comparing an individual against its pack.
                                Comparing individuals from different packs, each relative to its own.
                        Removes "units of measurement" from the discussion.
                        Enables use of the standard normal table.

Examples: Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale scores used to be approximately N(110, 25)
   A score of   85 is 1 s.d. below the mean.  Computation:  z = (85 110)/25 = (–25 raw points)/25 = –1 s.d. from mean.
           (About the 16th percentile--16% get scores < 85)
   145 is how many s.d.'s above the mean?
            Computation: z = (145110)/ 25=  (35 raw points above mean)/25 = 1 2/5 = 1.4 s.d. above mean

  ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ First standard normal table use, then with "real" values~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Standard Normal N(0, 1).  Our tables give area to the left of a z value.  TableZ, Appendix E, A-50
Using standard normal table:  See D&V p. 88.  (Wrong side of graph is shaded in my text)
       z |  .00     .01     .02 .....
      ...|
     1.4 | .9192   .9207   .9222 ....
   P(z < 1.40) = .9192,   P(z < 1.41) = .9207  P(z < 1.42) = .9222.
                                              ?z has more than 2 dec. places?  Round to 2.

    Sketch the density, mark the area you're looking for.
    Figure out how to get it using areas to the left of one or more z-values.
        Think cutting up paper bell-curves. (Remember whole area is 1.)  Like handout.

Example:  Proportion of observations between 0.5 and 1.4  P(0.5 < z <1.4) =
            Proportion of observations below 1.4  minus Proportion of observations below 0.5
               P (z < 1.4)  -  P(z < 0.5)  = .9192 - .6915 = .2277

.bell curves. Use 202x515 pixels to print.
Example:  Proportion of observations above  0.5,    P( z > 0.5) =
                ONE minus proportion of observations below 0.5,   1 -  P( z < 0.5) = 1-.6915 = .3085
.
Reading table "backward":
What z value has area ..... to the left/right of it?
        Sketch  roughly.
        Restate (if needed) as "What z value has area A to the LEFT of it."
        Look in body of table for the value closest to A.
        Go to edge(s) of table to find what z that goes with.
Example:  "What z value has 10%  of the observations above it?"  This is the same z as the one for:
        "What z value has 90% of the observations below (to the left of) it." (What z is the 90th percentile.)

        Find in the table  .8997 and .9015 --  .9000, our number, is between them.
                    .8997 is a little closer to.9000, so use it.
           For .8997, the z value is 1.28.   1.28 is the 90th percentile.
            1.28 has 10% of the observations above it.

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"What proportion"problems:  (D&V p.90-2:  "....I", "More..." question 1)  http://www.whfreeman.com/scc/

Example:  Proportion with scores between 100 and 145?

x = 145 gives z = 1.4  (done above.)      Area to left of z = 1.4 is .9192
x = 100 gives z =  –.4                           Area to left of z = –.4 is  .3446
                                                Desired area = Difference=  .5746;  about 57%.  Looks about right from picture. or   P ( 100 < x < 145)  = P ( –.4 < z < 1.4) = P( z < 1.4) – P(z < –.4) = .9192 – .3446 = .5746
     Read "Proportion of x's with 100 <x<145"  for P(100<x<145)
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* AS6 Normal Density tool: Use AS30-2 "Normal distribution based Confidence Intervals" tool for best setup.CAUTION: Don't hit the Enter key! It closes the tool-box!   To use it from Tool1 from the menu bar in Ch. 6:  Right click for menu. Choose Show Buttons.  Choose Show Flag Values, Mean, StandardDeviation; Real Values.  Now you can type in mean and s.d. and  the mean + 1,2,3 s.d.'s will show on the axis.  CAUTION: Don't hit the Enter key! It closes the tool-box!  To register a typed number, click in a different box.


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