Math 151, Spring 2006, Day 4, Mon. Feb.6,Hit reload to get most current versionJust before class

Day 4 : Reading: New, D&V Ch.3 pp. 18-22, 23-4 (Simpson's Paradox optional). Activstats 3-2.  Ahead  D&V Ch5, AS Ch5 (D&V, and I, will do medians, quartiles, boxplots first, then mean/s.d.  AS does middles, then spreads, then boxplots.)

We'll start using SPSS Wednesday (next time)--have class in the computer lab that day.  Everything by "hand" till then!

Hand in Friday (we'll discuss then)
(all from D&V text)  

Ch3p. 31, 2 cat. variables
17 Canadian languages
14  Cars  (for f, do a segmented bar graph of the cond. dist's of part e, as part of your discussion.)
24 a only Obesity 
26 Pet ownership  (Also:  what's most startling about these percents?) 
20 Prisons  (include one or more graphs)

Read, be able to discuss in class  
 

Ch3  25 Family planning
21 Working Parents (What's "wrong" with the graph in the back of the book?)

Optional 
 

Ch.3 
31 Simpson's paradox, UC

ActivStats  lessons on SPSS, in Mac 102: 
on AS pp.1-2, 3-1, 3-2, are a gentle introduction (using raw data).  4-2, 4-3 do continuous data.

<>Wednesday:   Come to Computer Lab, Mac 101.  Bring text; disk or usb to save on (containing your circle data if possible.)  (back here Friday)  If you're computer-phobic, coming into Mac 101 and trying some ActivStats SPSS exercises ahead of time might help.  (ActivStats with SPSS is on reserve in Long Library)<>
Sign in today:  Sessions at 11:30 and at 1:30 (choose 1:30 if you can).
Math151@wells.edu is functioning.  Email me  (sievers@wells) if you didn't get the welcome.  Use for questions, looking for study buddy, alerts to errors or confusions.

Check for Homework questions? Remaining #s on board.   What did you see, Speed vs. Hand?
HW:  PLEASE Label with Day #.  Please paperclip/staple (paperclips in envelope.  Reuse.)
Day 2 HW: 
Fay asks: if you didn't hand in Ch. 2 last time, please hand it in this time, WITH the frequency dist. that you did hand in, so she can give you full credit.

Distribution of one variable:  Area represents proportion.

Homework?
Describing:
  Pattern-- and deviations from it

   Shape (symmetric, or skewed (think smeared, or sliding) right or left),
        (Humps: uni- or bi- modal (multi-)   Two humps = two "causes"?)
        Some special shapes:  uniform (p. 40)  && J-shaped (#6 p.50) bell-shaped (Ch 6)
   Center, Spread (roughly now, Ch.5 numerically)
   Outliers,  gaps ? (different groups, sources?)   Looked at pulse data.  &&"Lurking  variable"
                  Look at heights.

<>What do we see?  What can we infer? (Introduction)
    Data source? Lurking variables?  
    Variability happens.  Things settle down on average  (Pooled data on colors)
       BUT conclusions are never certain.
    Statistics will give us a language for talking about uncertainty.
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
So far:  One Categorical variable. One Quantitative variable.
  A Quantitative vs. Categorical with 2 values (backtoback stemplot, parallel histo's or dots)
Categorical vs. Categorical (Color vs. Hand) Ch2, pp. 18-22

 "Two way table"   "Contingency table"   "Crosstab(ulation)s" (color vs. hand)
A thousand people are interviewed by the census bureau, and the results tabulated in this two way table.
Working Status vs. Sex.

Women Men Total
In Labor Force 350 450 800
Not in Labor Force 150 50 200
Total 500 500 1000

What is the "Percent of women in the labor force" ?
Calculate it Now. Write your answer down on a scrap of paper.
When you write or see percents, be clear what is on the  bottom of the fraction (even if it takes longer to say)!!.

Marginal distribution:  Distribution of one variable, ignoring/summingover the other.

Working Status
In Labor Force 800 80%
Not in Labor Force 200 20%
Total 1000 100%

Sex
Women Men Total
500 500 1000
50% 50% 100%

Conditional distribution:  Distribution of one variable, with the individuals being only those which satisfy a condition in the other variable.
For women, their conditional distribution as to working status  For men, their distribution as to working status.
            "Column %s"--columns add to 100%:  "conditional distributions of working status by sex".

Women Men Total
In Labor Force 350/500 = 70% 450/500 = 90% 80%
Not in Labor Force 150/500 = 30% 50/500 = 10% 20%
Total 500/500=100% 500/500=100% 100%

For those in the labor force, conditional distribution as to sex.
    For those not in the labor force, conditional distribution as to sex.
           "Row %s"--rows add to 100%:  "conditional distributions of sex by working status."

Women Men Total
In Labor Force 350/800 = 43.8% 450/800 = 56.2% 800/800=100%
Not in Labor Force 150/200 = 75% 50/200 = 25% 200/200=100%
Total 50% 50% 100%

Graphs to compare proportions:  parallel pies, see text.
  Segmented (stacked) bar charts,  of  % (so total length the same)
 % Women O            % Men X
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX  In Labor Force
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOXXXXXXXX  Not in Labor Force

&&Can do segmented bars of raw numbers, conveys different info:
 25 Women O            25 Men X
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX  In Labor Force
OOOOOOOOXX                      Not in Labor Force

Independence:  two variables are independent when the (conditional) distribution of one is the same for all categories of the other.  Working status is clearly not independent of sex.
Circle experiment: Is color independent of hand?  (Usually--Do we have enough data to tell whether it's true in general?)

Misuse:    From the New Yorker magazine, traditionally the most literary and error-free of all, Feb.14/21, '05:

CORRECTION: The Mail of January 3rd contained the incorrect statistic that four-fifths of Bush voters identified moral values as the most important factor in their decision.  In fact, four-fifths of those identifying moral values as the most important factor of their decision were Bush voters.
Next:  Measures of middle: Mode/ modal class, Midrange, Mean, Median, ....
& Measures of spread: Range, Standard deviation, Quartiles & Interquartile range...


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Women Men Total
In Labor Force 350 450 800
Not in Labor Force 150 50 200
Total 500 500 1000
Of people in the labor force, what percent are women?  350/800=43.75%
Of women, what percent are in the labor force? 350/500 = 70%
Of people, what percent are women in the labor force? 350/1000 = 35% back