Math 151 , Spring 2006, Day 37Monday, May 1  Hit reload ..

Exam 3 Today, in class Monday, Day 37, May 1.Covers work Chapter 13 (part)  thru Friday's HW.
  Covers Part III, experiments (one-factor), diagrams, several designs.  (Day 23HW on).  Part IV (what we did), and V thru Friday Day 33 HW    Sample exam problemsCheck the link to see what's appropriate.
Day 36: (Re)Reading: Chapter 20+21 thru p. 392 (Activstats is good here too.) (exam to here.) Then continue (Alpha levels) through 395.  Lightly through Error types and Power . Read What can go wrong p. 401 and the rest. (SPSS won't do proportion computations, but some other programs do; it's good to have an idea what you might see, p. 402.)  Next:  Read  Chapter 23, Means; (Sample size, pp. 441-2 optional)
Hand in (All D&V) Wednesday!

Two-sided:  For some reason, D&V don't model or assign any 2-sided problems (except #8).  We need to be used to them for later, so here are a few.
A: b) Use your green shoebox result to do a Two sided test against the null hypothesis p = .5.
Ch. 20, p.387 #7, Find the mistakes The first mistake is that both hypotheses are written with incorrect notation.  The second is that the alternative hypothesis is chosen wrongly.  I would write the company's goal as "more than 90% succeed"--I think that makes it clearer what structure to use.
Ch. 20, p.387  #8 Find the mistakes
From ActivStats, copied here:
 MRA-304-2:  Kerrich Coin Toss  While he was a prisoner of the Germans during World War II, the British statistician John Kerrich tossed a coin 10,000 times.  He got 5067 heads.  Take Kerrich's tosses to be an SRS from the population of all possible tosses of his coin.  If the coin is perfectly balanced, p = 0.5.  Is there reason to think that Kerrich's coin was not balanced? 

 TRE-396-9:  Store Checkout-Scanner Accuracy (adapted from Activstats HW):
In a study of store checkout-scanners, 1234 items were checked and 20 of them were found to be overcharges (based on data from "UPC Scanner Pricing Systems: Are They Accurate?" by Goodstein, Journal of Marketing, Vol. 58).  Before scanners were used, the overcharge rate was estimated to be about 1% . Based on these results, do scanners appear to give a different rate of overcharges than the old method of keying in the price?  (All items had to have individual price tags; scanning is much less labor-intensive.)  Do the steps, finding the P-value and stating a conclusion. 
= = = = = = = = = = 
"Significance" Ch. 21, p. 404 
1 P-value
3, 4 Alpha 
5, 6 Significant?
+ + + + + + + + + + +

Read,
  to 
discuss 
Optional 
Exam 3 today
 I will give you, on the test, the formulas for SD(p-hat), SD(x-bar), n for given C and ME.  The rest you need to memorize.
I will give you the Z and the T table; but be ready to find the z* for a C not in the T table!
Hypothesis test questions on the exam: I will only ask one-sided hypothesis test questions.  "Moderately strong" evidence will be taken to mean a P-value of .05 or less.

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