Math 151 , Spring 2005, Day 33 Fri. April 22  Hit reload ...After class & corrected

Exam 3, Friday April 29 (Day 36)  Covers work Days 24 (yes)  thru Monday Day 34
  I'll have a list of "sample exam" problems on Monday.
Day 33 Fri. April 22: (Re)Reading: Chapter 20+21 thru p. 392 (Activstats is good here too.) Then continue (Alpha levels) through 397.  Lightly through Power . Read What can go wrong p. 401 and the rest. (SPSS won't do proportion computations, but some other programs do; it's good to have an idea what you might see, p. 402.)
Hand in (All D&V)  Yes, all of these and Day 32's
Hand in all the problems listed on Day 32, + this one adapted from Activstats HW:
 TRE-396-9:  Store Checkout-Scanner Accuracy
In a study of store checkout-scanners, 1234 items were checked and 20 of them were found to be overcharges (based on data from "UPC Scanner Pricing Systems: Are They Accurate?" by Goodstein, Journal of Marketing, Vol. 58).  Before scanners were used, the overcharge rate was estimated to be about 1% . Based on these results, do scanners appear to give a different rate of overcharges than the old method of keying in the price?  (All items had to have individual price tags; scanning is much less labor-intensive.)  Do the steps, finding the P-value and stating a conclusion. 
= = = = = = = = = = 
"Significance" Ch. 21, p. 404
1 P-value
3, 4 Alpha
5, 6 Significant?
Read,
  to 
discuss 
Optional 

Continuing with Hypothesis testing (often called Significance testing)  Day 32

"Statistically significant" result (p.256):  An observed difference is too large for us to believe that it is likely to have occurred naturally (i.e. because of random variation.)

Especially if we must make a decision to Reject Ho  (or retain it)---
  Set "benchmark" or "cutoff" level  "alpha"  "significance level":  (p. 393-4)
        If  P-value is less than alpha, we say the test is "significant at level alpha"
                      (Seeing the result (again) would be rarer than alpha, if the null hypothesis is true)

Different fields/ questions use different alphas.  If rejecting  Ho is startling, or costly, want a smaller alpha.
  Usually round numbers:  .10 (1 in 10), .05 (1 in 20), .01 (1 in 100),.001 (1 in a thousand) etc.
    Smoke detector: P = 0.4% = .004.  IS Significant at .10, .05, .01 levels.  NOT significant at .001 level.

Cautions:  (p. 394)
   P = .0499 "Is significant" but P = .0501 "is NOT significant" at .05 level.  Best to report P-values, whether or not you use an alpha to base a decision on.
  "Statistically significant" difference isn't necessarily either large or of any importance.  (With enough data, you can detect even  small deviations from the null hypothesis.)


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