Math 151 , Fall 2005, Day 35 Wed. Nov. 16  Hit reload ...after class

Exam 3, Friday Nov. 18 (Day 36)--Next class-- Covers work Chapter 14  thru Monday's HW.
  "sample exam" problems were given out Friday (link below)
Day 35: (Re)Reading: Chapter 20+21 thru p. 392 (Activstats is good here too.) (exam to here.) Then continue (Alpha levels) through 395.  Lightly through Error types and Power . Read What can go wrong p. 401 and the rest. (SPSS won't do proportion computations, but some other programs do; it's good to have an idea what you might see, p. 402.)
Hand in (All D&V) Monday ??No, Monday after break!

Two-sided:  For some reason, D&V don't model or assign any 2-sided problems (except #8).  We need to be used to them for later, so here are a few.
b) Use your green shoebox result to do a Two sided test against the null hypothesis p = .5.
Ch. 20, p.387  #8 Find the mistakes
From ActivStats, copied here:
 MRA-304-2:  Kerrich Coin Toss  While he was a prisoner of the Germans during World War II, the British statistician John Kerrich tossed a coin 10,000 times.  He got 5067 heads.  Take Kerrich's tosses to be an SRS from the population of all possible tosses of his coin.  If the coin is perfectly balanced, p = 0.5.  Is there reason to think that Kerrich's coin was not balanced? 

 TRE-396-9:  Store Checkout-Scanner Accuracy (adapted from Activstats HW):
In a study of store checkout-scanners, 1234 items were checked and 20 of them were found to be overcharges (based on data from "UPC Scanner Pricing Systems: Are They Accurate?" by Goodstein, Journal of Marketing, Vol. 58).  Before scanners were used, the overcharge rate was estimated to be about 1% . Based on these results, do scanners appear to give a different rate of overcharges than the old method of keying in the price?  (All items had to have individual price tags; scanning is much less labor-intensive.)  Do the steps, finding the P-value and stating a conclusion. 
= = = = = = = = = = 
"Significance" Ch. 21, p. 404 
1 P-value
3, 4 Alpha 
5, 6 Significant?

Read,
  to 
discuss 
Optional 
Exam 3 on Friday, next class.Handout: Sample problems.
 I will give you, on the test, the formulas for SD(p-hat), SD(x-bar), n for given C and ME.  The rest you need to memorize.
I will give you the Z and the T table; but be ready to find the z* for a C not in the T table!
FROM FAY: I will be holding a review session on Thursday at 6:30pm in the Math Clinic.
As usual, please complete the review questions ahead of time and bring questions.
Also, please let me know if you cannot make it between 6:30 and 7:30...I will stay for you, I just dont want to miss you.  See you all on Thursday.
Hypothesis test questions on the exam: I will only ask one-sided hypothesis test questions.  "Moderately strong" evidence will be taken to mean a P-value of .05 or less.
Check the sample problems Handout to see what's not appropriate now.

Correction to Day 34 lecture:  on the board I wrote SE(p-hat) =  square root of (poqo/n) when calculating z's for a test.
   I should have written SD(p-hat) =  square root of (poqo/n).  We are assuming the real proportion in the population is po , so this is actually the standard deviation.  The Standard Error SE is when you are estimating the unknown standard deviation by using p-hat and q-hat, from the data, in place of the p and q you don't know.  Standard Error

Homework questions: Day 33
Continuing with Hypothesis testing (often called Significance testing)

Last Class spent working HW, mechanics and meaning of P-value.
This class spent working sample problems for exam. Pick up here next.
Use CI to estimate true value.  Two-sided tests.    Notes:  Day 32

"Statistically significant" result, and  "alpha"  "significance level."    Cautions.  Notes Day 34


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