Math 151 , Fall 2005, Day 21 Fri. Oct. 14 Hit reload ...After class

Exam 2  Friday, or Monday Oct. 24.  Covers thru Monday's, or Wednesday's HW: Parts II and III of D&V.
Day 21 (Fri. Oct. 14): Reading: D&V Ch 12,  13. Reading for Sampling: Ch. 11 pp.  216-7 The Step-by-step simulation effectively takes a random sample of size 3 from the 57 students.  The sampling processs is repeated 10 times.  The sampled individuals are only labeled as to whether they are Varsity or Not, but they could have been given names.  AS13 is good.
Hand in (All D&V p 238ff. unless otherwise noted)
1,4,6,7,8, 9 You did parts a,b,c,d,e of these; now add   f and hand them all in. 

21 Quality Control Use a cluster sample, again, now using the Random number table (p. A-49) : Get the individuals  like this:  Let the cases be labeled 61, 62,....80.  Use line 16, reading across, to first choose 3 cases from 61, 62,....80. Write down which cases are chosen.   Then  choose one bottle from each case like this.  Consider them labeled from 1 to 12:  For each case, take a sample of size 1 to decide which bottle from that case; keep reading the table where you left off.  Write down which bottles were chosen.   (I want everyone to start at line 16 so everyone will get the same sample and Fay can tell if you did it "right!")

11 Parent opinion I
15, 16 Phone and cell phone surveys

p. 267 #41 Security
p. 240 #20 Happy workers?  For e, use the Random Number Table (p. A-49) & read across Row 6. 
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = 
Chapter 13   p257ff. You can  all these, as written here, now...
1,2,4,5,6,10,11,12,17,18   Do a: Decide if it is an observational study or an experiment.  If it was an observational = "investigative" study answer that b,c,d,e.  (We'll complete the experiment ones later; start the experiment ones on a separate page and keep it, answering the questions you can so far.) 
25 Wine
24 Full moon
- - - - - - - - - 
Hand in answers to these questions on the "Placebo Effect" articles (outside my door/on reserve) Hand in WEDNESDAY: 
a) Give two examples of the placebo effect (from the article!)
b) What do researchers believe causes the placebo effect? 
c) In the separate article: "Pill will make you feel better...," what country was surveyed?

Read,
  to 
discuss 

p. 267 #29 Home-
coming

p. 239 #13 Wording
the survey
 

Optional 

Homework questions? Day 20  Circulate your random samples from Old Faithful data.

Sampling, continued:
Sources of Biasin sampling: any systematic failure of a sample (or its method) to represent its population.  (E.g. sampling frame excludes "different" part of population.)  see Day 20

HW #21: Are we running a risk if we take the same (place) bottle from each case? (Maybe.  Environment effects?  Deliberate "stacking" of bottles?)

Exam: shall we postpone till Monday??  (My email as of posting this: 2 for postponing--voluntary response sample...)
  Yes.  Will have definitely completed Part III, exam will cover Parts II and III.

Using Random Number Table to sample (p. A-49)      Every digit, every sequence of digits, is equally likely to be "next" in any direction.   see Day 20

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
D&V Ch13  Goal:  show cause-and-effect. Predictor-->Response
Observational Study:  Observe individuals; don't do anything to them; do not influence the responses.  Can indicate strength of relationship, differences, but not cause and effect.  (Often not with samples, but with selected group(s).)  Lurking variables?!? (Fisher:  Smokers smoke to soothe irritabilities that may cause cancer.)
         Retrospective:  gather data after the fact (observe that x% of men hospitalized with heart disease were/are smokers)
         Prospective:  choose individuals in advance. Measure them; or follow them as events happen.  (Framingham Heart Study: 5,209 (2,873 women and 2,336 men) healthy residents between 30 and 60 years of age.  Followed from 1948 to now. A second-generation cohort recruited 1971, Minority group 1995  http://www.framingham.com/heart/)

Experiment: Impose treatments  on individuals, to see how the treatment influences  the response.
Compare treatments' effects.
Do something to:    "Experimental Units" = "Subjects"
   Treatment:  A Specific experimental condition.
   Factor: = Explanatory (Predictor) Variable we manipulate.
        Levels: Specific values of a factor that we set.
   Response variable(s)

E.g. 2 headache medications, in combination?
A two-factor experiment, each with 3 levels. 9 possible treatments.
    Factor A: Aspirin:  levels None, 500 mg, 1000 mg
    Factor B: Caffeine: levels None, 50 mg, 100 mg
Response variable: reported pain relief
Aspirin
None 500 mg 1000 mg
None Treatment 1 Treatment 2 Treatment 3
Caffeine 50 mg Treatment 4 Treatment 5 Treatment 6
100 mg Treatment 7 Treatment 8 Treatment 9

E.g. (Day 13, MRA-95-13 )Corn yield= response variable.  One Factor = Planting rate.  5 Levels=the rates.
Start here Monday
Principles of designing a comparative experiment (p. 243)

Results:  Measure differences in the response variable for different treatments (e.g. side by side boxplots)
 "Statistically Significant" differences--too big to have plausibly occurred by chance (compare with variability within treatment)  We'll quantify later.
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