MATH 251      PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS I      Fall 2011
aurora.wells.edu/~sievers/Math251-Fall11/      The website is the first place to go for information, for daily HW assignments, outline of classwork, changes, updates +links and most handouts.

PROFESSOR: Dr. Sally Sievers.     Email: sievers@wells.edu   Website: aurora.wells.edu/~sievers
         Office: Macmillan 102. Phone: 364-3210 (office), 607-257-7641 (home).

I am on campus MWF from about 9:15 to 4:00. Find me, I'm yours, usually. (I teach at 9:30 and 11:30, and like to go to Sci. Colloquium.)  Otherwise, if not in my office, I am usually in one of the computer labs or math prof’s offices, or will leave a note on my door.  Best is to let me know you want to see me and when (i.e. make an appointment, by phone, email, or at class time).

OBJECTIVE: To learn many of the ways in which information can be derived from data, and some models for chance phenomena.
The focus will be on

GRADING:
Homework, Class participation 10-20% (remember you can’t participate if you aren’t here)
Quizzes (announced) 30-40%
Exams (2) 30-40%  
Final Exam (cumulative) 15-25%

TESTS: Quizzes will be given at intervals as needed (usually inclass closed book, but possibly also takehome).  Exam 1 will be a joint project (pairs or trios).  Exam 2 and the Final will probably be take-home open book.
Exam 1 (Project) Somewhere in Sept. 19-Oct. 12
Exam 2 Somewhere in Nov. 6-21
Final Exam , take-home open book, due in Exam week  by Thursday, Dec. 15, 5 pm.
     If there is some compelling reason why you can't take a quiz or hand in an exam at the scheduled time (e.g. away sports), tell me well beforehand.  If some emergency (e.g. blizzard the morning of the quiz and you're in Auburn) arises at the time of the quiz/exam, get in touch as soon as possible.  Otherwise, a missed quiz or late exam is a zero.

TEXT: David S. Moore and George P. McCabe, Introduction to the Practice of Statistics, 7th ed. I think this is a great book, chuck full of important stuff, and the spearhead of the latest philosophy of teaching and understanding statistics. Though it is an "introductory" text, it assumes a fairly high level of reading and reasoning sophistication, and the writing is dense with information. The amount of formal math in the text is not great: I will "add" some in class.
I expect to cover all of chapters 1 through 7, some of 8 and 9. We will not have time in class to go over all the material in the text—I will be concentrating on areas that need the most extra input. You however are independently responsible for all the assigned material—happily, the book uses lots of section heads, boxed items, words in the margin, summaries to guide you. Annotate and mark, take notes.
The problems are one of the strongest parts of this strong book. Almost all of them are taken from real life.
Try to imagine yourself as the data collector—how would you acquire such values—and the user—what information do you want out of this data?

COMPUTATIONAL AIDS
--We will be learning to use SPSS, a very powerful statistical computer package.  I'll provide handouts.  It will be on lab machines in Mac 101 and 110.  If you have time/travel issues that will make it hard to get to the labs, you may want to buy or rent a copy--see link SPSS info>SPSS for your own computer.
 --Everyone should have a calculator with at least a square root button to do simple computations. If you have a scientific calculator with statistical capabilities, fine, but don’t buy one for me.  (If you do buy one, get "two-variable" capability).

OTHER RESOURCES
I will use handouts and material in lecture which will supplement the text, and may have some reserved readings. (here is where we will use a small amount of Calculus.)
    Solutions to Exercises--for all problems.  One copy  in the Math Clinic (Mac 121) and one on reserve.
   CD in book mirrors most of website stuff (www.whfreeman.com/ips).  We'll use especially the Applets.

HOMEWORK: Homework will be assigned every class day,  and discussed and collected the following class.
The website will give the assignment for each day, with updates and corrections.  Please label it with the class day it was assigned. I encourage you strongly to get a "homework buddy" or buddies to work with: you are each other’s best teachers and supporters--the best way to learn is by teaching!

Odd-numbered problems have solutions in the back of the book. Solutions to ALL the problems in the text are in the Math Clinic (Mac 121) & on reserve.  

If you don’t "get" a problem, don’t try to fake it--set down as clearly as you can how and where you went wrong. It is better to know that (and what) you don’t know than to not know that you don’t know. Bring remaining questions to class. Homework and class participation will be marked more on conscientiousness, effort and engagement with the process than with "correctness."   

"Our" Math Clinic assistant is Danielle Crabtree, who will mark the HW, and have hours in the clinic for help.  Marks (in order of goodness) will be C (complete, on time, and looking mostly correct) , LC (same as C but one class day late)  H (some work, on time, but chunks either missing or clearly wrong),  LH (same as H but one class day late), LL (later than that--won't be looked at in detail).  Note that keeping an assignment a day and "repairing" it after the class it's discussed in will probably be better than handing in incomplete/wrong work on time. It's important to do it as a study record for yourself, and working daily is best; but HW will be accepted up to the end of the term, just counted less.

CLASS WORK: Again, you are each other’s best teachers and supporters; the best way to learn is by teaching.

--To this end, in the first several minutes of each class you will check over your homework with a neighbor in the class, (not your "buddy") and try to resolve any difficulties or questions. When you as a pair have resolved what you can, take your further questions to another pair--or if you have no more questions, take your expertise to people in the class who need it.  Write the number of any remaining problem on the board!

--The next part of the class will be devoted to a brief discussion of any remaining questions or ideas that were prompted by the homework assignment, of interest to much or most of the class.

--The third part will be the introduction of new material.

Study skills:
In 1995 American college freshmen reported that they spent an average of 3 hours a week studying in high school (I doubt it's gone up.). This is less than the amount spent PER DAY in any other industrialized country.
The classic rule of thumb for college courses is two-three  hours of study for every hour of class time, but for some courses this is more than enough and for some it is not nearly enough. (A recent survey of an elementary (!) statistics class at another college found the average time was 11 hours per week.) Also time put in may or may not be effective or productive. Studies show that it takes several hours for skill learning (e.g. playing a piano piece) to sink into long term memory, and the process can be disrupted if too much is crammed in at once.  If a similar thing happens with conceptual learning, many shorter sessions will be more effective than one long exhausting session.  Studies showing that sleep and dreamtime work to enhance conceptual understanding as well as skills (No surprise to mathematicians). 
Experiment, keep notes on what works and what doesn’t!






Math251-Fall11/SY251F11.htm  8/23/11
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