Math 300 , Spring 2002, W Day 8 Hit
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Ash Ch.2.
We'll use Moore&McCabe section 4.5 with Ash 2.1 &2.4,
review section 5.1 with Ash 2.3
Conditional probability and chain rules:
3 presentations: Venn diagram, two-way table
(both good for two "things"), tree (especially good for causal
or decision sequence; can work for sequence of 2, 3, or more things).
Reading (easiest mentally): Ash 2-1, read to bottom of
p. 39 (def. of cond. prob),
Moore&McCabe (review pp.192-8 (conditional distributions
in data tables)), pp.350-355 (conditional probability, chain rule,
tree diagrams)
Ash, Chain rules for AND, pp. 39-41, then "Theorem of Total
probability" pp.57-8
Moore&McCabe, Decision Analysis, pp. 357-358.
Read ahead?: Bayes' theorem, Independence, M&M
pp. ?, Ash pp 58-61 , 41-44
HW Draw trees whenever possible or appropriate; two-way
table or Venn diagram if that is most appropriate.
Moore&McCabe, p. 360 ff: 4.81, 4.87, 4.97.
Try on separate paper (and keep) 4.88,
4.95 (this is an example of the geometric distribution, which
we'll meet later.)
Ash sec. 2-1, p. 44
1, 2, 3,
4 (this is a workout of all our techniques at once)
6 Draw a picture, use geometry.
Sec 2-4, p. 61 (trees)
9
1, 2,
7
Separate paper, keep: 3a
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