Math 300 , Spring 2002, M Day 7 Hit reload to get
most current versionAfter class
Ash Ch.2.
We'll use Moore&McCabe section 4.5 with Ash 2.1 &2.4,
review section 5.1 with Ash 2.3
Most of Ash's examples stay with the "equally likely" model of
probability, but often the work extends to the other models as well.
HW Read pp. 139-148 in Wild & Seber, outside my door,
reviewing the 3 ways of connecting probability theory with the real world.
On the handout, Read the quiz questions and answer mentally,
and Do exercises 1, 2, 3. . the work in this chapter .
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We spent class going over the proportional
area situation, and the derivation of the Buffon's needle formulas.
HW is to actually DO the Buffon's needle
HW of last time, + the above (extra handout in the book outside my door)
Read ahead as follows:.
Conditional probability and chain rules:
3 presentations: Venn diagram, two-way table
(both good for two "things"), tree (especially good for causal
or decision sequence; can work for sequence of 2, 3, or more things).
Reading (easiest mentally): Ash 2-1, read to bottom of
p. 39 (def. of cond. prob),
Moore&McCabe (review pp.192-8 (conditional distributions
in data tables)), pp.350-355 (conditional probability, chain rule,
tree diagrams)
Ash, Chain rules for AND, pp. 39-41, then "Theorem of Total
probability" pp.57-8
Moore&McCabe, Decision Analysis, pp. 357-358.
The following will be assigned next time.
HW Draw trees whenever possible or appropriate; two-way
table or Venn diagram if that is most appropriate.
Moore&McCabe, p. 360 ff: 4.81, 4.87, 4.97.
Try on separate paper (and keep) 4.88,
4.95 (this is an example of the geometric distribution, which
we'll meet later.)
Ash sec. 2-1, p. 44
1, 2, 3,
4 (this is a workout of all our techniques at once)
6 Draw a picture, use geometry.
Sec 2-4, p. 61 (trees)
9
1, 2,
7
Separate paper, keep: 3a
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