Math 300 , Spring 2002, Day 6, F, Feb 8 Hit reload to get most current version

Ash, Sec. 1-5.  Probabilities for simple cases of continuous distributions.
When any point is as likely as any other ("uniform" distribution), then probabilities can be calculated directly from lengths, or from areas.
(Note--from review: to tell which side of a boundary line satisfies an inequality, it is enough to test one point.)

HW Ash p. 34, 1, 2, 6, 7.  Read #3 and its answer.

Famous old problem: Buffon's needle.
Handout.

INTERACTIVE PROBABILITY package
On Dell computer (Math dept. computer) in Macintosh lab.
If needed, Start>login as "student" with password "student".
Start>Programs>Interactive Probability>Interactive Probability Simulations
Choose Buffon's needle.
Run the simulation, understand it.  (They're measuring x, the angle, clockwise from the horizontal.  My picture shows it in standard form, counterclockwise.  Sorry.)  D (board width) = 1, so only L, needle length, can be changed.
   J is 1 if the crack is crossed, 0 otherwise.
   U is 2L/(proportion of J's), so should estimate Pi.
HOW TO:  Single arrow (F5) does it once ("steps").  Double arrow (F6) does it a bunch more at a time.  Backward arrow clears everything. (Square stops the running.)
Simulation>Run Options: Stop frequency = # of runs to do on the double arrow.  Update frequency = # of runs to do before posting results.
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HW (Due W if computer access is a problem.)
1) With L = .5, run the simulation, long enough so the pi estimate looks stable. (Increase the update frequency to at least 100 to make it faster. Hint: hold down the F6 key.)  Record the number of runs where it first got between 3.1200 and 3.1599 and didn't stray for at least 10,000 or so afterward.
2) Increase the needle length to 1 and repeat the above.

Repeat the above, 4 times for each needle length.  What effect does needle length seem to have on the efficiency of achieving a good  estimate?

In general, does this seem like a good way to estimate pi?
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(The handout was extracted from Help>Buffon needle discussion. In general, Buffon's needle is a very inefficient way to estimate pi computationally.)

(If you like, check out the Poker option.  The Help>Poker discussion describes all the winning hands and does some of the computations)


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