Math 151 , Fall 2004, Monday Day 42, Dec. 6 Hit reload...

See this page for changes, updates in red.

Final exam Tuesday, Dec. 14, 2-5 p.m.  See me or email me if you have a conflict or problem..
The Final will be closed book, but bring one sheet with your notes.  Length 1 1/2 to 2 times the length of the midterm exams; comprehensive but with special attention to the material covered since Exam 3.  Reading but not creating SPSS.
Get handout of info and review problems, if you didn't last time.

Help times:  Me, Friday 10-12 ,  Tuesday morning 11-2 (come to my office)
   Fay, Monday  5-6 review session.  +  "If students have any questions and they cannot come to the review session they can email, call, or drop by."
   LaReina, Wed 10:30-noon, Thurs 1-4:30 pm,
Sun
1-4:30 pm, Mon 1-4:30 pm

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Textbook:  there will be a new textbook next semester.  Keep it or sell it back to bookshop, not to Wells student.

Homework: you may hand in late homework up to the time you begin  the exam.  After now, to me directly,  or under my door. (Will get registered in but not carefully read.) NO CAMPUS MAIL!  Returned HW will be in usual yellow folder outside my door.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Please fill out an evaluation, return it to the ENVELOPE circulating or on the projection cart.

Two sample:  We use Equal variances not assumed method;
Older method:  "Equal variances assumed"--the "pooled two-sample t-procedure ." (See  Moore p.406.) a different formula for SEdiff , different df.  If n1= n2, the two SEdiff  formulas give the same answer.  But the df's are still different).  Safer to use "Equal variances NOT assumed" as a rule.  More...
 "Pooled two-sample t-procedure " == "Equal variances assumed" was the only choice in many circumstances before the above good  approximations were developed, computing power increased, and robustness was explored.
Big problem: How do we know that we have equal variances?  We don't.  The usual test for equal variances has these problems:  (Read Moore pp. 413-14)
1) the Null hypothesis is that the variances are equal, and we gather evidence only against a null hypothesis.  So we don't have a way of assessing evidence for equal variances (the null hypothesis).  Best we can say is we don't have strong evidence against.
2) the usual test on variances is highly NONRobust (highly sensitive) to departures from normality in the populations.
So don't bother.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Robustness of two-sample t-procedures: p. 401: very good when distributions have similar shapes (even if not normal.)
  Equal sample sizes improve robustness against non-normality (so that's one reason why we design that way.)
Questions on HW, others:???

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  - - -
ON the EXAM?
Computing standard deviation by hand (like #7.7, p. 374, like pp. 38-9).  YES. (4 values, simple computations.)
Doing a two-sample t procedure by hand
        (like p. 401, 7.34 beetles in oats (test),  p. 412, 7.49 voice onset time (test and CI) NO
Figuring out SPSS output:  how to read, which output is appropriate (including two-sample)  YES,
      telling which menu commands, NO.

What we studied:
[Data Analysis: description and exploration]
   [Data Production: Sampling, Designing Experiments]
        [Statistical Inference: formal Estimating and Testing--
         quantifying our uncertainty and satisfying the skeptic]

Anything you'll meet will fall into one of those categories--
   --Fancy ways of torturing a data set to make it give up its secrets--"data mining," subtle and complex summary methods
   --Sophisticated experimental designs
   --Estimations (usually intervals) , tests (P-values, "significant at") based on other parameters

 "If your only tool is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail."  Studies are often set up so that they can be analyzed using certain techniques.
  Conversely--if you want to do statistical inference, you'd better know what statistical processes you want to use, and design your study so those processes are appropriate.  Don't expect to just gather data and then figure out how to do statistics on it (not that this isn't done--all too often!)  If you've got nails, you need a hammer, if you have screws, you need a screwdriver.  It's not too hard to create data sets for which good inferential techniques don't exist!

More time?  Look at these problems, with a neighbor.  Decide what to do.  (These are a good addition to review problems)
p. 424, # 7.68
p. 424, # 7.69, part b.
p. 426, middle--problems 74, 75, 76.

The end!  Thank you for the pleasure of being your teacher.
Good luck!


Sievers home  Math151-Fall04/Dayf42.htm 11:30am 12/7/04
This page belongs to Sally Sievers who is solely responsible for its content. Please see our statement of responsibility.