Math 151 , Day 29,Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2002Hit reload to get current versionAfter Class

HW Day29  Read (& reread) Sec. 6.1--
Memorize the tan box on p. 242 (mean and s.d. of sampling dist. of x-bar)
Memorize the definition of a C.I. p. 302, esp. the "repeated samples" bit, -- or from the webpage,
                 and the formula p.306 for a CI for the mean, including the picture for z* (Fig. 6.6).
    Closed Book Quiz  Monday on the two Confidence Interval things (definition + formula).
Note on reading:  p. 306, table at top:  "Tail area" is area in One tail, which is what you look up in the Normal table.
Sec.6.1 , all from Moore . 
p.302, 6.1 poll of women
6.2 95% confidence?
6.3 density of x-bar, and confidence intervals This problem combines the pictures 6.2 and 6.4 For part d, to draw the confidence interval:  just choose any point on the horizontal axis of  your graph to be x-bar.  Measure off the distance m (half the width of the shaded interval) and extend a bar m wide to the left and the right of your point,below the curve.  (Like fig. 6.4, the bars with arrows at the ends.  The red dots show what the x-bar is for that confidence interval)  Choose another point, and repeat..  If your first x-bar was in the shaded interval, pick your second outside the shaded interval, and vice versa.  You should note that if x-bar is in the shaded interval, then the confidence interval bar covers mu (280) and if x-bar isn't, then the bar doesn't. 
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Using formula p. 306 for C.I.: 
6.6 potassium again.
6.7 comparing CI's for different confidence levels.  Also write down the m (margin of error) for each interval. 
6.9 comparing CI's for different sample sizes.
6.5 IQ test scores Read pp. 312-13 before doing this one. 
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 Postpone:Cautions; general review and extension 
 p. 314 6.14 internet, response rate
 p.317, 6.19 newts
p. 318, 6.22  men/women CI's
 p.316, 6.18  consumers/pharmacies
Read, to discuss
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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6.13, 6.15 (cautions) 
6.23 (Carter election)

Optional


If you were absent Monday:
SAMPLE from an UNKNOWN population.  Each person take 4 slips from the Birkenstock box,
      find the mean, and the mean + .841.
      Record these for yourself .  This is your Confidence Interval Estimate of the mean of the Birkenstock population.
      Record them also on the sheet going around, and draw the interval on the graph transparency going around.

Question from last time: Do people really  use sampling to decide if they should accept an order of something?
Activstats p. 10-1, activity 2

Sample Size and Population Size  (Activstats 10-1 activity 4, or Activstats, 16-1, green star)
      S.D of Xbar  is population sigma divided by square root of sample size.
"It may seem that the sample size alone should not determine the variability of statistics computed on random samples, but rather that the fraction of the population that has been sampled should somehow be important.....  Consider a common form of sampling; tasting soup from a pot.  If the soup is well-stirred, we are not surprised that a spoonful will tell us how the entire pot tastes.  Nor would anyone argue that to test a small pot of soup requires a spoonful, but to test a large vat of soup requires eating a bowlful.  Now consider tasting the soup only by dipping a toothpick into it.  This small sample may be too little to provide an accurate impression of how the soup tastes; we need at least a spoonful or so.
In the same way, the size of the sample is what determines how precisely statistics from that sample describe the population.  But the sample size has the same effect regardless of the population size." [As long as the population is at least about 10 times the size of the sample.]

Fuzzy Central Limit Theorem, again:
Data whose variation is due to many small independent random influences will have an approximately normal distribution.
  "Quincunx "probability board

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Chapter 6, Introduction to Inference  Go to Day 28
Will continue with Assumptions p. 312-13, sample size Friday


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