Math 151 , Day 27, Friday, Nov. 1, 2002 Hit reload to get current versionAfter class

   Due date for Extra Credit problem, assigned Monday Day 25: Extended to Mon. Day 28
HW Day27 Read sec. 4.3. (Skip ch. 5) Start Sec. 6.1
Memorize the tan box on p. 242 (mean and s.d. of sampling dist. of x-bar)
Hand in Monday:  Moore Sec. 4.3
These problems use only the mean and standard deviation. 
  p. 243, 4.41 (lab measurements)
  p. 250, 4.50
These problems use either the Central Limit theorem, or the "sample mean of n independent observations from a normal distribution has a normal distribution." theorem (both on p. 244)
  p. 249, 4.51 cola (you did a, now do b) 
  p. 247, 4.44 carpet flaws.  Also draw some square yards and mark some flaws.
  p. 250, 4.53 auto accidents
More problems:
p. 243 4.42 unbiasedness, sample size
p. 249 4.52 hypokalemia
p. 249 4.48 dust Note, the dust actually weighs 123mg, but the weighings may not be accurate enough for us to find the actual weight. "Distribution of this mean" = "Distribution of means from all possible sets of 3 weighings from these scales." When I took physics, we did not have digital scales; they were balance beams; and we weighed everything 3 times and found the average. (Have you ever gotten on the scale, said "that can't be right!" gotten off and on again a couple times?) 

p.250 4.54 (labeled 4.53?) pollutants; backward from value to probability.  You might want to know L so that if you tested your 125 cars and found a high value of x-bar, you would be able to compare it with L; if it was greater than L, you would go back to the manufacturer and say "I  believe you sold me a batch of bad cars, because the chances of getting an average emission level this high if the exhaust system is working properly is only 1 in 100. It is more reasonable to believe the exhaust system is not working, than that we hit that 1 in 100 possibility."
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READ these problems  to be assigned  Monday: Sec.6.1  . 
p.302, 6.1 poll of women
6.2 95% confidence?
6.3 density of x-bar, and confidence intervals This problem combines the pictures 6.2 and 6.4 For part d, to draw the confidence interval:  just choose any point on the horizontal axis of  your graph to be x-bar.  Measure off the distance m (half the width of the shaded interval) and extend a bar m wide to the left and the right of your point,below the curve.  (Like fig. 6.4, the bars with arrows at the ends.  The red dots show what the x-bar is for that confidence interval)  Choose another point, and repeat..  If your first x-bar was in the shaded interval, pick your second outside the shaded interval, and vice versa.  You should note that if x-bar is in the shaded interval, then the confidence interval bar covers mu (280) and if x-bar isn't, then the bar doesn't. 
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Using formula p. 306 for C.I.: 
6.6 potassium again.
6.7 comparing CI's for different confidence levels.  Also write down the m (margin of error) for each interval. 
6.9 comparing CI's for different sample sizes.
6.5 IQ test scores Read pp. 312-13 before doing this one. 
Read,
to discuss
Optional
-From # 4.40 p.241  Add your 3 means to the circulating list, if you didn't add yours Friday.
Exam 2: pretty good!  Solutions in folder(s) outside my door.   Below 70, please see me!
         total  #1  #2 #3 #4 #5    #6   #7 #8     9|8
possible 100    20   12 5  4 17    26    9 7      9|2334
     max  98    20   12 5  4 17    26    9 7      8|556778
       Q3 87.75 17   12 5  4 15    24    9 7      8|03
      Med 84    15.5 12 5  4 14.5  23    9 7      7|5899
       Q1 75.75 13.5  7 4  4 12.25 18.25 7 5.25   7|3
      min 56     3    3 0  0  9    14    3 4      6|89   64, 56
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
HW questions?
Sec. 4.3: Central Limit theorem, Mean and s.d. of Xbar,  Go to  Day 26

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Finish 4.3 above, then start here Monday
Chapter 6, Introduction to Inference
Statistical Inference: drawing conclusions about a population from sample data.
    Requires: Random sample or Randomized experiment.  (Simple Random Sample usually)

First example:  Use sample mean xbar  to "estimate" (unknown) population mean µ
 Mean of 4 grades (HW#4.40) estimates population mean of all 10 ("known"= 69.4)  E.g. 69.75,  64.25,  73.5

Interval estimate:  xbar + margin of error (fudge factor)  estimates population mean µ (69.4)

    69.75 + 1:   "µ is between 65.75 and 73.75"  True
    69.75 + 4:   "µ is between 65.75 and 73.75"  True
       73.5 + 4:    "µ is between 69.5 and 77.5"  False
       73.5 + 5:    "µ is between 68.5 and 78.5"  True
        64.25 + 4:   "µ is between 60.25 and 68.25"  False
        64.25 + 5:   "µ is between 59.25 and 69.25"  False

Confidence interval estimate of a(n unknown) population parameter:

Confidence Interval of the form  estimate + margin-of-error  for the mean with Confidence level C: (p.306) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Spring 2001:  61% (19 of 31) xbars  recorded were within 4 of µ. (between 65.4 and 73.4).
                       77% (24 of 31) xbars  recorded were within 5 of µ. (between 64.4 and 74.4).
Fall 2001:  65% (15 of 23) xbars  recorded were within 4 of µ. (between 65.4 and 73.4).
                  78% (18 of 23) xbars  recorded were within 5 of µ. (between 64.4 and 74.4).
Spring 2002:  83% (35 of 42) xbars  recorded Wednesday are within 4 of µ. (between 65.4 and 73.4).
                       90% (38 of 42) xbars  recorded Wednesday are within 5 of µ. (between 64.4 and 74.4).

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