Math 151 , Fall 2002, Friday, Day 10 Hit Reload..

--Exam 1  Friday Sept. 27, in class, closed book.   Bring a simple calculator. I will give you copies of the Normal table.
Covers through Monday's HW.  You will need to read SPSS output, but not tell how to produce any. You will need to calculate "by hand" a standard deviation for four numbers. (As well as medians, quartiles, etc.)   Problems like HW + some true-false or multiple choice types.
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HW Day 10
Moore: Read  rest of sec. 1.3.  Ahead, Ch. 2.
Hand in   
>>standardizing: I recommend drawing the two "rulers"--raw and z-score.
p. 56 1.56 SAT/ACT       p. 65 1.64 (cf. batting avgs)
>>table use: Always sketch the distribution first, mark the area you are looking for! (Use  http://www.whfreeman.com/scc/ to check.)
p. 64 1.68 a and b.Pregnancies
 Also (with 1.68), What proportion of pregnancies last 310 days or more? (see below **) 
p. 61 1.58 (locomotive adhesion, 2 dist's) 
 p. 66 1.69 (Stanford-Binet, "superior")
 >>"Backward Normal"Always sketch a normal curve first,
roughly mark the proportion=area you are given.
  p. 76 1.89 (soldiers' heads)
  p.64 1.68 c (pregnancy)
p. 66 1.70 (z-scores of quartiles)  
Read, to discuss  Optional (more practice) 

"Backward" 
p. 65, 1.66 (backward z)
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1.67 
 
 
 
 

"Backward" 
p. 62 1.60 (WAIS)

(Activstats: Ahead: Ch.7, Scatterplots, pp. 1-2 (p.3 is optional) Know "explanatory", "response" variables; "positive", "negative" association, etc.. Notes:  Heights are in millimeters.  Look at Teacher Notes (teacher icon), pp. 2&3 )
**[In 1973] the following item appeared in Dear Abby's column:
     Dear Abby: You wrote in your column that a woman is pregnant for 266 days. Who said so? I carried my baby for ten months  and five days, and there is no doubt about it because I know the exact date my baby was conceived. My husband is in the Navy  and it couldn't have possibly been conceived any other time because I saw him only once for an hour, and I didn't see him again  until the day before the baby was born. I don't drink or run around, and there is no way this baby isn't his, so please print a retraction about that 266-day carrying time because otherwise I am in a lot of trouble.
                                                                               San Diego Reader
Abby's answer was consoling and gracious but not very statistical:

     Dear Reader: The average gestation period is 266 days. Some babies come early. Others come late. Yours was late.

The question here is not whether the baby was late. That fact is already known. At issue is the credibility of the length of the delay. Ten months and five days is approximately 310 days, which means that the pregnancy exceeded the norm by 44 days. [How unusual is that?]



 Homework questions?
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Standardizing:  A "raw value" x is standardized by telling how many standard deviations above the mean it is.
    Find z:  Subtract the mean from x.  Now you know how far "above" the mean x is, in "raw" units. (If it's below the mean, the number will be negative.)  Find how far this is in "standard deviations" by dividing by the standard deviation.
That's the z-score.

Standardizing:   A way of comparing an individual against its pack.
                                Comparing individuals from different packs, each relative to its own.
                        Removes "units of measurement" from the discussion.
                        Enables use of the standard normal table.

Examples:  85 is 1 s.d. below the mean.  Computation:  z = (85 110)/25 = (–25 raw points)/25 = –1 s.d. from mean.
           145 is how many s.d.'s above the mean?
                Computation: z = (145110)/ 25=  (35 raw points above mean)/25 = 1 2/5 = 1.4 s.d. above mean

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"What proportion"problems:

Example:  Proportion with scores between 100 and 145?

x = 145 gives z = 1.4  (done above.)      Area to left of z = 1.4 is .9192
x = 100 gives z =  –.4                           Area to left of z = –.4 is  .3446
                                                Desired area = Difference=  .5746;  about 57%.  Looks about right from picture.

or   P ( 100 < x < 145)  = P ( –.4 < z < 1.4) = P( z < 1.4) – P(z < –.4) = .9192 – .3446 = .5746
     Read "Proportion of x's with 100 <x<145"  for P(100<x<145)
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"Backward problems"  "What raw (x) value has area ___ to the left/right of it?"
        Sketch  the curve, labeled with x values and z values, and the Area, roughly.
        Restate (if needed) as "What z value has area A to the LEFT of it."
        Look in body of table for the value closest to A.
        Go to edge(s) of table to find what z that goes with.
        Convert the z to an x: z is the number of standard deviations above the mean.
            Multiply z by the size of 1 standard deviation.  Now you have distance above the mean, measured in raw units.
            Add the mean.  Now you have the "raw" value x. (You have "unstandardized")
Example:  What x value has 10%  of the observations above it?  This is the same x as the one for:
        What x value has 90% of the observations below (to the left of) it.

The table gives z = 1.28, approximately.  The Wechsler score x= mean + z (s.d.) =  110 + 1.28 (25) = 142

Percentiles:  a Wechsler score of 142 has 90% of the scores at or below it.  142 is the 90th percentile.


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